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Hidden Numbers: When It Comes to Crime, Graphs Don’t Tell the Whole Story

AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

‘There's a graph for that!’ Whenever there’s a public outcry about the economy or crime someone always counters with, ‘My graph shows it’s not really that bad! You don’t know how good you have it!’ So, it’s no surprise with Sunday’s horrifying video of a young woman dying in flames in a New York City subway car, there would be the usual graphlighting (graphs + gaslighting). Nate Silver appears to fall on the graph side. But, posters were quick to tell him there’s a lot of factors not reflected in the crime numbers. 

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A drastic drop in small crimes (like muggings, for example) can skew the numbers of much serious crimes like assault and murder. Overall crime may indeed be down, but that’s little comfort when the number of people being stabbed or gunned down in the street is way up.

Posters make their case.

People hate to have their genuine concerns ignored or dismissed, especially when they’re seeing crime in person and on TV.

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Also not reflected in graphs and numbers is changes in the quality of life brought on by the drastic transformation of one’s environment. Seeing shambling homeless people and drug users passed out on previously clean, tranquil streets brings crime and ignites fear.

That’s what many commenters are saying.

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As mentioned, you have to add ‘crime fatigue’ into the mix as well, That’s where people no longer report certain crimes because it’s a waste of their time since they know police will do nothing. So, when people are telling you crime is getting worse, that they fear for their safety, and they’ve witnessed people gunned down or burned alive on their subways, don’t graphlight them and tell them it’s all in their imagination. The numbers aren’t the whole story.

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