As is so often the case when a hurricane shows up to wreak havoc, the armchair scientists and meteorologists have come crawling out of the woodwork. It’s obnoxious, but it’s also illuminating. Because it helps to remind us who the bad actors are. And there are many of them. Maybe even too many to count.
But author, climate nerd, and ex-progressive Michael Shellenberger is always doing his best to keep tabs on them and what they’re up to, and he dove into their malpractice in an extensive, must-read thread yesterday:
Over the last week, the mainstream news media claimed that hurricanes are becoming more frequent & intense, but they’re not, as the data clearly show. What’s more, it’s clear that the media are engaging in *deliberate* misinformation. These aren’t innocent mistakes. pic.twitter.com/sAG1Dq4YEF
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Consider this article in @FT claiming that “hurricane frequency is on the rise,” based on NOAA data.
But NOAA says “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts.” pic.twitter.com/A3BGOu9XBy
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
In fact, NOAA writes, “The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s.” pic.twitter.com/ka2gqZLXHh
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
In other words, the graphic @FT chose to show of apparently rising hurricane frequency is, in reality, a graphic showing improved hurricane detection thanks to satellites.
What are the chances that FT reporter @Aime_Williams didn’t know this? I would guess close to zero.
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
It’s possible that @Aime_Williams was careless but I doubt it. I would bet good money that she read NOAA’s web site, which clearly warns that “there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts,” and chose to ignore it in order to sensationalize.https://t.co/7XFSeY4ypA
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
What about intensity? Same story. Writes NOAA, “after adjusting for changes in observing capabilities (limited ship observations) in the pre-satellite era, there is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.“
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Bottom line? “We conclude that the data do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.”
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Against the best-available science, the news media unleashed a hurricane of misinformation using the exact same manipulation of data as @Aime_Williams. @FT
The quantity of pseudoscience & journalistic irresponsibility is breathtaking. pic.twitter.com/6QDFa8igvi
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
And now it’s clear that activist scientists at the UN are working with Google to control the information available on climate change.
This is dark, chilling stuff. https://t.co/iPmodz7jDc
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
“This is dark, chilling stuff.” Fact-check: accurate.
To the extent the cost of hurricanes is rising it’s due entirely to greater wealth in harm’s way. Consider how much more developed Miami Beach is today compared to a century ago. Once you adjust for rising wealth, there is no trend of rising costs. pic.twitter.com/UMuuaxKP73
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Is it possible that hurricane intensity will rise in the future? Yes. NOAA predicts a 5% increase in hurricane intensity. But it also predicts a 25% decline in hurricane frequency.
I have not seen a single mainstream news media outlet mention any of this. pic.twitter.com/MWcAhf3Nc0
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
And it’s looking like we shouldn’t expect them to mention any of it.
This is not complicated. The information is not hidden away somewhere. NOAA even boldfaces its key conclusion.
Journalists know this. They’ve been covering this for decades. It’s clear that they are actively trying to mislead the public.https://t.co/7XFSeY4ypA pic.twitter.com/cXJcLrH7HT
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Well, they try to mislead the public on everything else … why not climate science, too?
I have made a complete debunking of environmental alarmism available on-line. All slides have references to the best-available science or primary data.https://t.co/MtMpMFQoXu
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
These are they key take-aways:
– weather-related disasters are declining not increasing
– rising human resilience massively outweighs climate change
– every major environmental trend is headed in the right direction pic.twitter.com/ucmpz30q1e
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Further reading and please follow @RogerPielkeJr @RyanMaue @BjornLomborg https://t.co/gJCSER7EyV
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
I pushed back against misinformation on hurricanes and climate change in Congress last month at a hearing on… climate change misinformation https://t.co/LMtDtMeZNi
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Final note: August had no hurricanes for the first time in 25 years. Hardly anybody wrote about it. Compare that to the wall of misinformation about a single hurricane last week.
The media have an agenda. They are peddling pseudoscience. They can’t be trusted. pic.twitter.com/r40RLSdSU8
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
h/t @Revkin https://t.co/xZQrurViRV pic.twitter.com/lfKkzGUSgZ
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
Egregious misinformation by the @nytimes pic.twitter.com/k5YQalwyCo
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 2, 2022
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 3, 2022
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