If any of you follow this editor on Twitter you know she was not happy with Trump not debating. Fine, I'll write this in first person ... -I- was not happy with Trump refusing to debate. To be honest and fair, I'm still not thrilled HOWEVER, this thread from John Hayward about why it seems this was actually a good move for Trump is pretty damn spot-on.
That doesn't mean I don't still want to see Trump debate, though.
Take a look at this:
And yet Trump's unwillingness to debate doesn't seem to have hurt his polling very much. It won't hurt Biden when he refuses to debate Trump either, and Trump will look ridiculous trying to hector Biden for refusing to face him. Maybe debates are just going out of style. https://t.co/2ICKAZNYxN
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Bingo.
All along, one of the biggest fears with Trump not debating was that he couldn't heckle Biden when Biden refused. But to Hayward's point, maybe debates are going out of style. Do they actually change anyone's minds?
To be honest, we traditionally expect candidates to debate each other - it's a time-honored element of our election contests - but in today's political climate, it's not so clear who the audience for these face-to-face contests is.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Fair point. Keep going.
The committed faithful don't care, and will simply declare their candidate the winner no matter what happens. In the social media era, the "debate results" are basically an online shouting contest between loyalist factions. The side that pumps out more victory Tweets wins.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Almost as if John has spent a lot of time on and writing about Twitter.
You will hard-pressed to find a single committed Trump supporter who thinks any less of him for skipping the primary debates. The exact same people will have a grand old time heckling Biden online when he refuses to debate Trump.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
This is absolutely true. I can't tell you how many times people have told me they don't need him to debate, they already know about what he will do and what he wants to do. They say the debates won't help Trump so why bother?
Interesting looking back on that while reading this thread.
Trump blowing off the primary debates is especially egregious because he was a dominant presence in the 2016 debates, but did not fare well at all against Biden in 2020. It seems reasonable to ask him to demonstrate he has upped his game and is ready for the rematch.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Trump was a LION in 2016.
But the GOP primary electorate seems untroubled by Trump skipping the 2024 primary debates, and since it didn't hurt him much, it was a good strategic move. He foreclosed any chance of a rival candidate scoring points on him and gaining traction as an appealing alternative.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Huh.
Other than loyalists enjoying a chance to declare their guy or gal has once again OWNED and DESTROYED their opponents onstage, who's really paying attention to debates anymore? The media loves the show, but is there a major segment of the electorate that really wants them?
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Also a fair point.
The only part of a debate that seems to have any impact is the Big Viral Soundbite Moment. Candidates understand that, so they try to manufacture such moments to create media and online buzz. That's not really a "debate" in the classical sense of the term. It's not very edifying.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Trump was a force of nature in 2016 because he sheds Big Viral Soundbite Moments like snow falling from a high mountain peak. It comes naturally to him. It helped that he talked about topics the political class loathes but voters are keenly interested in, like border security.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
He's a bull in a China Shop.
He just is.
And usually in a good way.
In the current contest, Ramaswamy often looks absurd because he's trying so damn hard to create a Big Viral Soundbite every time he has the mike. He understand the game perfectly, but he plays too close to the net.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Is any of that really helping voters to make a better candidate selection, though? These days it's more about generating a little campaign electricity than discussing top issues in depth. When candidates DO speak rationally on serious issues, it doesn't seem to help them much.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
There's always the danger that bad leaders will perform well on the debate stage, and that danger may now exceed the chance that debating will weed out bad leaders and help voters choose wisely. Finding truly impartial moderators to run totally fair debates is almost impossible.
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
Excellent point as well.
Maybe the whole practice of debating has become antiquated for today's electorate. The GOP race remains calcified while the frontrunner simply avoids debating. Dems rig their primaries anyway; in 2016 they got caught rigging debates. What's the point anymore? /end
— John Hayward (@Doc_0) December 1, 2023
When you put it this way ...
What is the point? Enquiring minds want to know.
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