Would someone do us a solid and send this thread to Joy Reid, Jemele Hill, and any other blue-check Leftist pundits claiming Glenn Youngkin won Virginia because of racism? Awesome.
Hey, we get it, Democrats really really really need people to believe it had to be something other than their crap leadership in the state over the last eight years (especially the last two years), but the reality is Youngkin won more non-white voters than any other statewide GOP candidate in the history of the state.
Don’t take our word for it:
1. So, after analyzing every precinct in Virginia…it's obvious that Youngkin won a higher % of non-white votes than any GOP statewide nominee since Holton '69/Coleman '77.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
Ya’ don’t say?
Huh.
2. Obviously the definition of non-white has changed since Holton/Coleman when non-white was almost exclusively Black voters. Both Holton and Coleman won roughly 33% of Black voters.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
3. As always, I think the exit polls are wrong. Youngkin didn't win a majority of Hispanic voters. But, the NYT analysis of him winning ~37% of Hispanic voters is probably a tad low as well.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
4. It's nearly impossible to "know"…but, I did look at some Census tract data as well as precinct data. My own conclusion is that he won just north of 40% of Hispanic voters. He probably did even a tad better with Asian voters. But, again, it's impossible to be certain given
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
We’ve seen estimates as high as 55% of the Hispanic vote but even 40% is pretty damn amazing for a Republican.
And certainly not proof of white supremacy.
Sorry, Joy.
5. how precinct lines are drawn compared to the actual residences of Asian/Hispanic voters. It looks like he may have improved on Gillespie's showing with Black voters. But honestly, be very wary of what you read about Black voters nowadays when it comes to %s won by a Republican
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
6. I say this b/c a lot of the analysis is based on looking at majority Black precincts. As many demographers have pointed out, the suburbs in Virginia and America are increasingly Black. This geographic dispersion of Black voters isn't talked about enough in politics.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
Convenient narratives are convenient.
Yup.
7. So many of the measurements of Black voters' preferences are stale. I honestly think that's one (of many) reasons you're seeing so many poll misfires across the country that underestimate the GOP. Every pollster applies a "special sauce", and one ingredient in that recipe is
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
8. how to weight Black voters. I look at Wisconsin last year. Pollsters had it heavy towards Biden (WaPo had it +17). It was decided by less than 1%. When you look at heavily white precincts in the state and their heavy Biden vote share, it's obvious that a big error was
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
9. their weighting of Black and Hispanic voters. Trump probably did win over 40% of Hispanic voters in Wisconsin and 11-12% of Black voters. Pollsters were weighting those groups much more heavily towards Biden than they actually voted.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
Shocker.
10. Saying all that, it's safe to say that Youngkin won more non-white raw votes than any statewide GOP nominee in Virginia history. As @SeanTrende always notes, the coalitions of the 2 parties are always changing. What we are seeing emerge is a slow, but sure, GOP improvement
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
DING DING DING.
11. with nonwhite voters both in Virginia and in the nation.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
And in the nation.
Better wake up, Democrats.
On second thought … that’s ok. Stay asleep.
Heh.
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