There is nothing like a good Nate Silver drubbing. And Ace of Spades does so in swoon-worthy fashion. As Twitchy reported, the latest Pew poll has Mitt Romney up by four among likely voters. And it’s not just Andrew Sullivan who is bursting into tears.
I'll have what he's having –> @fivethirtyeight
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 8, 2012
Indeed. Nate Silver of The New York Times is smoking something wacky, clearly, as he swiftly clutched his pearls over the Pew poll last night.
According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012
How much difference did the Pew poll make? We had Romney win % rising to 24.4% from 21.6% today. Without Pew, he'd have made no gain at all.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012
So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012
[new article] Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective http://t.co/6R4aSUy4
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 9, 2012
Breitbart.com does an amazing job of destroying Mr. Silver’s attempt at a spot as captain of the Obama propaganda cheerleading squad.
NYT's Nate Silver Exposed as Obama Propagandist http://t.co/B2M3GVR4 via @BreitbartNews
— Burn, Democrat-Run Cities, Burn! (@NolteNC) October 9, 2012
Nate Silver Becomes ObamaMedia's Baghdad Bob of Polls –> http://t.co/ZRXZRJc6
— Burn, Democrat-Run Cities, Burn! (@NolteNC) October 9, 2012
From Breitbart.com
And it doesn’t matter that today Nate Silver jumped the shark with his ridiculous 25.2% prediction of a Romney victory. Because Silver doesn’t exist in order to give anyone intelligent analysis. He’s there to make Obama boosterism look intelligent and thoughtful and fact-based, no matter how ridiculous and counter-intuitive and fantastic the end result.
Recommended
Seriously, read the whole thing.
Snake oil salesman Silver continued today.
It's possible that Romney's bounce is fading slightly. Also possible that it was larger than we thought originally. Not mutually exclusive.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 9, 2012
Oh, cupcake. Aren’t you just precious? Put down the stats and stuff and hold onto that ledge.
Ace of Spades gave Silver, and his “models” the business, as only he can. With lines like “my model indicates Obama is The Batman,”Ace of Spades pounds Nate Silver and his sad Pew poll spin.
However the Pew Poll is obviously crank, as it disagrees with my forecasting model. Discounting that poll and others I don't like–no change
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Thus, a more accurate statement of the race at the moment is that Romney is mired in the sub-0.0002% range.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Discounting certain polls as incompatible with my model, and adding in the Finnageler's Constant, I have Obama with 143% chance to win Ohio.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
A 143% chance of winning Ohio means that there will be a "spillover" effect into neighboring states like Michigan and Iowa.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Adding this "spillover" effect into the mix, Obama leads comfortably in Michigan, 165% to Romney's -65%. Similar trends appear in IA.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
According to my forecasting model, there is a 92.33% chance that Ann Romney will make a pass at Barack Obama at some point.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
My model suggests an 86.14% chance that Obama will "break" Mitt Romney in mind, body, and spirit, leaving him a gibbering lunatic.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
My model suggests that not only will Ann Romney throw herself at President Obama, but there is a 74.44% chance Paul Ryan will do likewise.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
My model foresees an 81.89% chance that Mitt Romney will be a homeless bum by October 20th, wearing nothing but scraps and dog urine.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
There is still a 42.93% chance that Barack Obama will reveal that he is, in fact, The Batman. It is unclear how this may affect the race.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Gaming out various Obama-Is-The-Batman scenarios, I see this playing especially strong in post-industrial states, like Michigan.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
As my model already shows Obama with a healthy 163% chance of winning Michigan, the Batman Scenario is less about the race than Two-Face.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
My model indicates, with a not-to-be-discounted 17.33% chance, that Mitt Romney actually is Two-Face.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Florida has moved slightly towards Romney. He now has a 0.0034% chance of winning the Sunshine State.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
However, my model also suggests a 85.67% chance the citizenry will rise up in arms against him, like he's Top-Hat Frankenstein.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
There are permutations of the Two Face/Top-Hat Frankenstein scenarios but they are not easily discussed in a Twitter timeline.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Assuming Romney is not set afire by outraged townsfolk in Florida, he hold steady with a 0.0015% chance of winning Virginia.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Virginia is especially difficult for Romney, due to the presence on the ballot of a 3rd party candidate who cuts into his base.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
That candidate is Lord Humngus from Mad Max 2, who outpolls Romney 4 to 1 on the question of "better reflects my values."
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Assuming Mitt Romney can neutralize the threat from the Ayatollah of Rocknrollah, his odds improve to 0.0041% .
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Oh, my! We are gasping for breath. Other Twitter users can’t resist joining in the parody fun.
https://twitter.com/themorecowbell/status/255465439910563841
Nate Silver gave 87% odds to Obama on debate night. Now down to 74%. More lib pseudoscience. James Hansen should hire him to make up facts
— Don Surber (@donsurber) October 9, 2012
Rasmussen: Tied. But don't worry, libs, Nate Silver gives The Won a 74% chance of winning. http://t.co/bnwNSzKL
— Don Surber (@donsurber) October 9, 2012
Nate Silver's "model" has just been admitted to the Betty Ford Clinic.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 9, 2012
We plugged our polling data into Nate Sliver's forecasting model and it gives President Obama a 172% chance of winning.
— PartisanPolicyPolls (@PPPPolling) September 21, 2012
Ace of Spades continues with his trouncing.
I am sure of my numbers. I have a model. @themorecowbell
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
In sum, the model predicts that Mitt Romney has actually decreased his chances of winning this election by actually running.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Many people have a low, but real, chance of becoming president; Romney has actually reduced his odds below, say, Dustin "Screech" Diamond's.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Bonus points for the “Saved by the Bell” reference!
My model still allows for a 0.0056% chance that Dustin "Screech" Diamond will be the next President. He has gained on Romney. — and, scene
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
via @johnekdahl, Gallup LV polling begins, with Romney up 2, 49-47 http://t.co/eN4nuRUn
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Including the lead in Gallup, The Model has now moved Romney up from a 0.00022% chance of victory to 0.00023%.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Although Obama is down in virtually every post-debate poll, The Model still has him with a 99.0073% chance of victory, based on…
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
…a detailed analysis of fundamentals within individual states, and who I'd most like to play bumper pool with.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
Fear not. Even if Obama loses (a 0.0023% chance), The Model predicts that he will easily cover the spread.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
.@philipaklein @daveweigel The Model suggests only a 0.0739% chance that this is the right time to panic.
— Ursus, Director of Weather and Banana Programming (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012
But it is the right time to giggle-swoon. Keep the hits coming, Twitter. We are sure you will have ample opportunity as the hilarious meltdowns and freak-outs continue.
Bless their hearts.
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