It's 4 days before the election and if you are anything like me, you're just a bit nervous about Tuesday. When I get antsy, I want data and so i started scanning Twitter for it. I thought I would share with you, our dear readers, what I found. My goal is to introduce you to some out of the box data collectors and give you some factual perspectives. Let's get started.
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I want to start with Wisconsin.
📊 Prediction #6: WI to Trump by 1+ (1-Nov) 🇺🇸
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 1, 2024
As I mentioned this morning, everyone on EV X has different strengths and specialities. We're all our own individuals, but we're also a collaborative community.
I work best where there is a high volume of data. For PA, I mapped…
Official Call: Wisconsin Trump (projected +3)
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 1, 2024
Poured over every municipality in every major city, Racine, MKE, Dane, Brown, etc. The numbers are undoubtedly redder than 2022 even in deep blue counties.
The early vote proportion is now overwhelmingly IPEV and Overwhelmingly in… pic.twitter.com/ti51cGZxBr
Wisconsin EV - County by County 11/1
— therealarod1984 (@therealarod1984) November 1, 2024
First crack at WI. Using 2024 EV by county, and applying a crude model of 2020 vote shares by county
* Harris is up 3.3% in the EV
* 40% of 2020 vote is in
* Mail is way down, IPEV is way up
Now let's look at turnout in key counties
1/n pic.twitter.com/RH6yG8M8AO
WI EV - County by County 11/1 Page 2
— therealarod1984 (@therealarod1984) November 1, 2024
* 12 largest counties make up 68% of pop
* 4 Biden county turnout (T/O)? 44%, 43%, 38%, 35%
* 4 Trump county T/O? 51%, 50%, 50%, 42%
* 4 slight lean Trump T/O? 43%, 42%, 41%, 38%
Turnout favoring Trump? Will keep digging in!
2/end pic.twitter.com/ywxPUS07DD
Wow, I just came across this article & my 12 county breakdown in 2/n was actually right in line. Dane/Milwaukee share of WI vote right now is down 3.4%, the heavy Trump WOW counties are up 1.1%. In a state that was decided by 0.6%, those are big shifts.https://t.co/U2glj8c9MM
— therealarod1984 (@therealarod1984) November 1, 2024
The data nerds are feeling comfortable with Wisconsin so that is excellent news.
🔴 1-Nov Pennsylvania Early Voting Update: The math for victory 🔴https://t.co/euSd3jfkGB
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 1, 2024
Today in Pennsylvania, Advantage Trump has taken another large day-over-day jump by 🔴 R+0.52% to 🔴 R+17.65%. PA mail returns are still pouring in for both parties, and on this volume…
Next up is Pennsylvania. They aren't making calls about that state, but they are analyzing the data and telling us what needs to happen for a Trump win.
Recommended
PA VBM Analysis - 11/1 Corrected
— therealarod1984 (@therealarod1984) November 1, 2024
* Dem VBM is 55.1% of 2020
* Rep VBM is 89% of 2020
* Instead of D 1.1M Ballot "firewall" in 2020, its 394K
* Projecting forward, Trump needs 55.0%-43.9% on remaining ~ 5.1M votes
* Trump won 65% of 2020 ED (but still lost due to firewall) https://t.co/37IhmttGiD
Now, let's talk North Carolina.
Today's North Carolina update: 🔴 Republican leads slow, 🔵 Democrats lose to 🔴 Republicans and 🟡 Independents fourth day in a row
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 1, 2024
Sorry for being late with updates, a lot of thrash today.
The North Carolina map at https://t.co/OQmut71g35 has been updated. Republicans grow…
The first of my final predictions for 8 battleground states is now released. North Carolina looks poised to go to Trump by roughly 5.1% on the strength of its early voting data and party registration trend. It is an essential hold as it retains the Core 235 electoral vote base…
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 1, 2024
So,that is a few data points to mull over. Also, follow those data scientists to keep updated. It helps the nerves.
