New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell just said at a news conference that there’s not enough time to order a mandatory evacuation of the city ahead of potential Category 4 Ida which should make landfall Sunday night:
@mayorcantrell says there is no time for the @CityOfNOLA to issue a Mandatory Evacuation because #Ida's landfall will happen so soon, but she has strongly encouraged residents to leave as quickly as possible. Voluntary Evacuation orders remain in place for Orleans Parish. @WGNOtv
— Brooke Laizer (@BrookeLaizer_Wx) August 27, 2021
Um, how much time does it take to switch the inbound lanes to outbound only traffic?
Cantrell: We don't have the time to implement contraflow. Therefore the city cannot pivot to a mandatory evacuation, because we don't have the time. #NOLA
— Jessica Williams (@jwilliamsNOLA) August 27, 2021
Watch for yourself:
"Time is not on our side," Mayor Cantrell says contraflow cannot be set up so a mandatory evacuation cannot be issued, but to shelter-in-place and hunker down. pic.twitter.com/GCgAtEvKAS
— FOX 8 New Orleans (@FOX8NOLA) August 27, 2021
According to Jeff Adelson, staff writer for The Times-Picayune and The Advocate, it takes 72 hours minimum to assist residents without transportation and 12 to 24 hours to implement the contraflow plan:
Just for some context, this storm was too quick for mandatory evacuations in NOLA even though Cat3 is going he threshold
– city-assisted evacuation for 40k residents without vehicles takes 72hr minimum
– Contraflow takes 12-24hr, minimum— Jeff Adelson (@jadelson) August 28, 2021
The worry is people are stranded on the roads once the storm starts:
When the call would have had to have been made, Ida was still just forming and only just possibly going to be a Cat 3
Trying trying to do it in less time (24 hours before tropical storm force winds start) means stranding people or leaving them stuck on I10 in a hurricane
— Jeff Adelson (@jadelson) August 28, 2021
Also, the city doesn’t need to evacuate everyone who doesn’t have transportation. What’s the plan for the most at-risk?
All that said, if you are able and want to get out now is the time to do it, get on the road as far in advance of landfall as possible and travel East rather than west (since the current track is to New Orleans’s west)
— Jeff Adelson (@jadelson) August 28, 2021
Meteorologist Brad Panovich added that the levee system post-Katrina is designed for a Category 3 storm:
Easy to be super critical of NOLA decisions to not have a mandatory evacuation, but understand it takes 3 days+ to safely evacuate the whole city. If you go now it can't be done or will be ongoing during storm. Also the new city levee system designed for Cat 3 100yr surge.
— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) August 27, 2021
Okay, but this is projected to be a Category 4 storm and they’re predicting overtopping:
In #NOLA, the Storm Surge Warning include areas outside the levee system and portions of the Westbank where modeling indicates that some levee overtopping may occur. These levees were designed post Katrina with resilience measures & overtopping in mind. #Ida https://t.co/8mtGzMWKMS
— NOLA Ready (@nolaready) August 27, 2021
Prayers up, New Orleans.
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