In the wee hours of this morning the New York times dropped a bombshell of a poll on the Democratic electorate. The poll, conducted in conjunction with Siena College, has Democrats and their fellows travelers in the media in an absolute tizzy because... well, look for yourself.
This morning’s NYT/Siena poll has Trump ahead of Biden in five key swing states, finds the economy to be a massive driver of discontent with Biden. https://t.co/PzKiF3AaIo pic.twitter.com/6SZCOSFU2Y
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) November 5, 2023
Trump leading in ONE swing state would be a problem for Democratic hopes, two a big problem. Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by a decent margin in five out of six swing states polled? That's DefCon 1, and watching the Democrats try to figure out what to do has been a sight to behold.
Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023
Although we'd debate Axelrod on how 'justly' Joe Biden can be in being 'proud of his accomplishments' we'd most certainly agree with him that Biden being President again would not be good for the country.,
It's time.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2023
President Biden has served our country well. I'm confident he'll do so for the next year.
But it's time for an act of personal sacrifice and public spirit.
It's time to pass the torch to the next generation.
It's time for Biden to announce he won't run in 2024.
Recently minted Democratic Party Pundit Bill Kristol also sees the writing on the wall for a Biden run against Trump, and he goes further in pointing out the absolute folly of running Biden to run for a second term in office.
🚨🚨🚨
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2023
Cross-tabs in NYT/Siena really worth a look.
Biden loses to Trump across the battleground states 48%-44%.
Then: "If Joe Biden were not the Democratic nominee," would you vote for the Democrat or Trump?
The generic Democrat leads Trump 48%-40%.https://t.co/jmiEWr88II
If people don't like Trump apparently they really don't like Biden, but who can blame them?
The more you dig into the crosstabs on the poll the worse it gets, it seems.
Voters under 30 — a group that strongly voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 — said they trusted Mr. Trump more on the economy by an extraordinary 28 percentage-point margin after years of inflation and now high interest rates that have made mortgages far less affordable. Less than one…
— Chuck (@SilverBulletLLC) November 5, 2023
Voters under 30 — a group that strongly voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 — said they trusted Mr. Trump more on the economy by an extraordinary 28 percentage-point margin after years of inflation and now high interest rates that have made mortgages far less affordable. Less than one percent of poll respondents under 30 rated the current economy as excellent, including zero poll respondents in that age group in three states: Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Nobody tell the Gen Z 'influencers' like Victor Shi and Harry Sisson that it seems like their 'influence' isn't influencing many people.
And it's not just the under-30 crowd that seems to be turning on the President:
“Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions.”
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) November 5, 2023
Those are catastrophic numbers amongst Hispanic and 'urban' voters for a Democratic candidate looking to get elected. It seems as though every group that Biden relied on for votes to gain the White House in 2020 is turning against Biden, and turning hard.
One of the most telling NYT/Siena questions is whether economic or social issues matter more for 2024:
— Andrew Figueiredo (@AndrewFiggy) November 5, 2023
White College: 47% economic, 42% social
White Non-College: 57% economic, 27% social
Non-White College: 61% economic, 28% social
Non-White No College: 68% economic
Of course as one would expect a lot of Democrats are crying out the normal stuff, 'the election is a year out!', 'it's one poll!', 'they didn't sample enough people!'. All valid criticisms to an extent, except that none of what we see in this poll goes against what we have seen out of other polls, out of the signs on the ground, and out of how the electorate has historically responded to the sorts of internal and international crises that have plagued Biden's America.
While it's true that with a year left there are perhaps things that can happen to make Biden's poll numbers strengthen that argument cuts two ways; given what we've seen out of Biden thus far in Biden's Presidency does it seem likely that he'll find a way to make things better for his position, or is he likely to make it worse? We know where we'd fall on that question.
In the meantime we'll sit back and watch the Democrats melting down.
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