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Arson attack on Rand Paul's office?

Greg Nash/Pool via AP

Very early this morning, the building housing Rand Paul’s office in Bowling Green went up in flames:

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And, yes, some people are jumping to the conclusion that this was 1) arson and 2) directed at Rand Paul.

We are certainly gratified to hear there were no injuries.

But to return to the suspicions, naturally, it is not impossible that some leftist or some other person who had a beef with Senator Paul decided to torch the place. But from what we have seen, there’s no showing that it is arson and even if it was arson, it appears to be the kind of building that has multiple offices, so we couldn’t assume Paul's office is being targeted. For instance, there is reportedly a law firm there, and do we have to tell you that sometimes lawyers make enemies? 

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But people do hate Rand Paul. Look at how many people regularly show support for that neighbor who attacked him. We aren’t saying that neighbor was politically motivated, but certainly the support for the attack by that neighbor is motivated by politics. And we know the left doesn’t mind arson as a tactic given the entire year of rioting we suffered in 2020.

However, many people have drawn the connections we aren’t ready to:

Honestly, as a motivation, the Fauci referral is weak sauce. This administration has made it clear that they will engage in political discrimination in its prosecutions. We doubt anyone seriously believes that the referral will go anywhere, including Senator Paul. At most, Paul is probably trying to highlight that inequality.

And one of the Krassenstein brothers tries to 'both sides' this:

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The rest of the message:

With this said, all of those people who are cheering on the fire need to stop, and all of those who are pointing fingers and blaming certain people for the fire, need to stop as well.

I've seen Democrats blaming Paul, claiming he's trying to destroy evidence or collect insurance money. I've seen Republicans blaming Democrats for the fire, claiming that those close to Fauci are responsible for the fire.

This is irresponsible and based on no facts. The disgusting part is that most of those people blaming Democrats, are secretly hoping that Democrats did this, and those who are blaming Paul are secretly hoping that Paul did this.

Som[e] people really have some dark wishes. Let's just hope for the best, and if someone is responsible, let's allow investigators to figure that out. Stop cheering for destruction in order to OWN the Libs or OWN the Conservatives.

Except there are some facts to support the belief that it was arson targeting Paul, in the sense that 1) arson is something the left has a documented history of doing, and 2) the left has a history of wishing harm on Senator Paul. If a man who had been previously convicted of murder said he was going to kill his wife, and a few days later her dead body is found, a neutral third party would reasonably suspect that he killed her, even before a cause of death was found. That person couldn't reasonably say it was definitely murder and the husband was responsible, but they could reasonably suspect it might turn out to be the case. 

What we think Krassenstein is getting hung up on is the difference between evidence and proof. Evidence is simply any information pointing toward a particular conclusion. And evidence can point in many different directions. Proof is what you have when the evidence reaches a specific degree of certainty. You can have evidence of something, without proof, but naturally, you can’t have proof without evidence. We don’t have proof anyone burned down Rand Paul’s office on purpose, but there’s some evidence that would lead a reasonable person to suspect it. Frankly, anyone investigating at the scene is committing malpractice if they aren’t at least considering it—and, to be fair, that is true almost any time someone attacks a politician or his or her property.

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Others drew other connections, along with other reactions:

This might be a good chance to bring up a pet peeve. Now, we don’t have any problem with Ms. Somerville’s sarcastic tweet, but we kind of hate the overuse of the word ‘conspiracy theory’ as a pejorative term and we're using her tweet as an excuse to get this off our chest.

In criminal law, a conspiracy is nothing more than two people agreeing to do a thing and doing some overt act in furtherance of it. And, by the way, that overt act only has to be a step on the road to accomplishing the conspiracy’s goals. For instance, imagine that two people agree to counterfeit money and then one of them buys a printing press. Buying a printing press is not itself illegal, normally, but it still counts as an overt act in furtherance of a conspiracy. Some American jurisdictions make the conspiracy itself a crime, others use it as a method of spreading liability around, and some do both. So, to return to our counterfeiting hypothetical, if one member of the conspiracy shoots a security guard while stealing ink and paper for the scheme, the other member might end up being criminally liable for that shooting, even if he or she didn’t know about it ahead of time.

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One point we are getting to is that conspiracies happen all the time. There are undoubtedly thousands of people sitting in prison right now because a jury of their peers determined that a conspiracy existed and that person was a part of it—beyond a reasonable doubt. And conspiracies litter our history. On September 11, 2001, more than nineteen men conspired to hijack planes and use them to attack the World Trade Center, the pentagon and an uncertain third target. And when Lincoln was murdered, that was part of a larger conspiracy to murder a huge chunk of his cabinet and essentially decapitate the Union government in the hopes of giving the Confederacy a chance to start up again. We generally only hear about John Wilkes Booth because everyone else screwed up their assassination attempts that night. People use the term ‘conspiracy theory’ as a pejorative, as if it never happens, but it’s a documented fact that they do happen, all the time.

The other thing to note is that often that pejorative label is applied to situation where no conspiracy is alleged. The idea that some guy intentionally set Senator Paul’s office on fire out of political hatred is not a conspiracy at all. Because as we just said, it was hypothetically some guy, meaning one person, and conspiracies require an agreement between two or more persons.

All of which is not to say that all ‘conspiracy theories’ are true or all suspicions involving one person committing a politically motivated crime are true, but let’s not abuse our language, either.

Finally, some leftists took an opportunity to dunk on him:

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These kinds of people only prove our point. The left isn’t against political violence—they are only against it in certain cases.

***

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